This calculator finds the most suitable point estimate from a given number of successes, number of trials, and confidence interval using 4 available point estimate formulas:
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Point Estimate: x / n Wilson Point Estimate: (x + z²/2) / (n + z²) Jeffrey Point Estimate: (x + 0.5) / (n + 1) Laplace Point Estimate: (x + 1) / (n + 2)
x is the number of successes,
n is the number of trials, and
z is the Z-score associated with the confidence interval.
The calculator below will compute the 4 point estimates and automatically select the best one:
Best Estimate = 0.35840
MLE Point Estimate = 0.34286
Wilson Point Estimate = 0.35840
Jeffrey Point Estimate = 0.34722
Laplace Point Estimate = 0.35135
Once you get the estimates, you need to choose the most accurate one. You can do so by following these rules:
MLE ≤ 0.5, use the Wilson Point Estimate.
MLE < 0.9, use MLE Point Estimate.
MLE < 1.0, use the Jeffrey or Laplace Point Estimate, whichever is smallest.
MLE = 1.0, use the Laplace Point Estimate
Hope this calculator helps. Happy analyzing!